What are the possibilities of creating a perfect March Madness bracket?

The modern NCAA chip attempts to predict the outcome of 63 games, which means that there are many variables that can undermine the "ideal" chips. With each new slide, the number of possibilities increases dramatically.

Assuming all odds are equal, the chance of randomly selecting a random slice is 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. In other words, there is one in every 9.2 million people.

But this assumes that you randomly choose the difference. If you are a basketball fan, you have a good understanding of the team that entered the final round and will not be free to choose - you know that the first seed may beat the 16th seed, so you will have a better chance Get the perfect slice.

Haven't started calculating your income yet. Georgia Tech Professor Joel Sokol spent several years developing a statistical model that could create the best NCAA segment.

“Generally, about 75% are any models you can get,” Sokol spoke about the NCAA's Bracket IQ blog. Part of the reason is that people think that about a quarter of the tournament is unsettling. "

Sokol estimates that his decent statistical model has a better chance of choosing an ideal slice - between about 10 billion and 10 billion. This is a huge improvement over the real stochastic model, but it is still virtually impossible.

"Even the most optimistic, I see the number, which is $2 billion about 1%, which means giving or grabbing if you want to have a 50% chance to watch him in your life, you should go for a The Billion Tournament NCAA said Sokol. "It can be said that there are now thousands of people who fill out these brackets every year, but in fact, there is no such big change in parentheses compared to the number of people. "

Investor Warren Buffet regularly offers huge rewards to anyone who can overcome the difficulties. According to CBS Sports, in 2019, billionaires provide $1 million a year for a perfect sweet 16 segment.

fishing? This offer is only available to Buffett employees. Another question? Even if you are optimistic, the chances of having a perfect arc are long.